The sceptic media
Every day, experts bombard us with their views on topics as varied as Iraqi insurgents, Bolivian coca growers, European central bankers, and North Korea's Politburo. But how much credibility should we attach to the opinions of experts? Skeptics, warn that the mass media dictate the voices we hear and are less interested in reasoned debate than in catering to popular prejudices. As a result, fame could be negatively, not positively, correlated with long-run accuracy. Until recently, no one knew who is right, because no one was keeping score. But the results of a 20-year research project now suggest that the skeptics are closer to the truth. I describe the project in detail in my book Expert Political Judgment: How good is it? How can we know? The basic idea was to solicit thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts about the fates of dozens of countries, and then score the predictions for accuracy. We find that the media not only fail to weed out bad ideas, but that they often favor bad ideas, especially when the truth is too messy to be packaged neatly. The evidence falls into two categories. First, as the skeptics warned, when hordes of pundits are jostling for the limelight, many are tempted to claim that they know more than they do. Boom and doom pundits are the most reliable over-claimers. Between 1985 and 2005, boomsters made 10-year forecasts that exaggerated the chances of big positive changes in both financial markets. They assigned probabilities of 65% to rosy scenarios that materialized only 15% of the time. In the same period, doomsters performed even more poorly, exaggerating the chances of negative changes in all the same places where boomsters accentuated the positive. They assigned probabilities of 70% to bleak scenarios that materialized only 12% of the time. Second, again as the skeptics warned, over-claimers rarely pay penalties for being wrong. Indeed, the media shower lavish attention on over-claimers while neglecting their humbler colleagues. We can see this process in sharp relief when, following the philosopher Sir Isaiah Berlin, we classify experts as "hedgehogs" or "foxes." Hedgehogs are big-idea thinkers in love with grand theories: libertarianism, Marxism, environmentalism, etc. Their self-confidence can be infectious. They know how to stoke momentum in an argument by multiplying reasons why they are right and others are wrong. That wins them media acclaim. But they don't know when to slam the mental brakes by making concessions to other points of view. They take their theories too seriously. The result: hedgehogs make more mistakes, but they pile up more hits on Google. Imagine your job as a media executive depends on expanding your viewing audience. Whom would you pick: an expert who balances conflicting arguments and concludes that the likeliest outcome is more of the same, or an expert who gets viewers on the edge of their seats over radical Islamists seizing control and causing oil prices to soar? At this point, uncharitable skeptics chortle that we get the media we deserve. But that is unfair. No society has yet created a widely trusted method for keeping score on the punditocracy. Even citizens who prize accuracy have little way of knowing that they are sacrificing it when they switch channels from boring foxes to charismatic hedgehogs. Here, then, is a modest proposal that applies to all democracies: the marketplace of ideas works better if it is easier for citizens to see the trade-offs between accuracy and entertainment, or between accuracy and party loyalty. Wouldn't they be more likely to read pundits with better track records?
Resist And Reignite
There’s always a reason behind everything we get in our life.You can’t make everyone happy.If it is your goal ,you are bound to lose yourself.People face circumstances in every walk of life but also enjoy the blissful outcomes.You & your soul be tired of managing everyday’s routine but have you ever thought of making life simple again?You went through several hard situations but that doesn’t mean you’ll pretend to be happy when you are not.At some point of time,you must have thought of an aspect of your life is “wrong” ,stop labeling anything or anyone as right or wrong.It’s not possible to go for the right thing always, you repeat negative patterns to seek what life is teaching you,then embrace a positive change.Making mistakes is in human nature,learn from them,laugh about them and move along.You can be the most positive and enthusiastic person.Think big thoughts but relish in small pleasures.Treat everyone you meet like you want to be treated.Trust that what you want will flow if you create good feelings each day and allow divine order. Happiness is not the treasure to be found but can be built within ourselves.The only way to be happy is to make others happy.Surround yourself with people who fill your gaps.You’re rigidly attached to your opinions instead open yourself to others,as you upgrade your mind ,you upgrade your life.Always strive for excellence not perfection.Being perfect is unrealistic.Don’t expect life to be fair.Live your life as an exclamation.You look for barriers to your progress.Instead anticipate miracles will happen and be ready for the universe to surprise you! Compliment yourself even in small improvements that’s how you’ll get to know where you stand and how better you can be.Always keep your promises.Rekindle old friendships and connect to the people as much as you can because material possessions won’t make you better or happier. Explore new ideas and opportunities often and set your priorities.You’ll die and you have no idea when,grasp every moment.Live on auto-pilot mode…whatever happens…happens.So,let it be.Practise acceptance and be curious about how life is guiding you.Be a better version of yourself.Your achievements and success won’t matter as much as your precious memories on your deathbed.It’s just the little things in life which must be cherished forever.
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